Nobody buys books anymore! Publishing is collapsing! Authors can’t make a living! We hear claims like that all the time. But are any of them true?

Here’s a question for you: which do you think is bigger, the global box office or the book market? Stick around until the end for the answer.

But first, let’s look at a couple of revealing numbers. This year, the global book market exceeded $150 billion and is projected to grow to $224 billion by 2034.

That’s enormous.

In the United States alone, people buy more than a billion books every year across print, digital, and audio formats. Huge opportunities exist for informed writers. The key word here is informed. Very few authors know where to look for those opportunities.

Yet we constantly hear alarming reports that publishing is in crisis and authors can no longer make a living from their work. On the surface, we seem to have three competing narratives.

• Readership is supposedly declining.
• Author incomes are reportedly falling.
• The book market remains surprisingly resilient and continues to create new opportunities.

So which is it?

Is the Book Market in Crisis?

Let’s start with the first claim. The number of young people reading for pleasure does appear to be dropping. The survey data tells a sobering story. Among teenagers, daily reading for fun fell from 27% to 14% in just a decade. One scientific study also found that the proportion of young adults who read for pleasure declined by roughly 3% per year.

At the same time, we keep hearing that author incomes have taken a nosedive. According to the Authors Guild, the median income for writers has fallen below the poverty line.

To quote their report, “half of all full-time authors continue to earn below minimum wage in many states from all their writing-related work.” The report also notes that “most authors are earning half of their writing-related income from sources other than their books.”

Authors in the UK and other English-speaking markets do not appear to be faring better. To make matters worse, a survey conducted by the Society of Authors found that 86% of respondents believe generative AI has already reduced their earnings, while 65% expect their income to fall even further. Seventy-two percent report fewer job opportunities, and a worrying 57% say their career is no longer sustainable.

But don’t let those figures drag you into the doom-and-gloom pit just yet. Because this is where things get interesting. In fact, it may represent a golden opportunity.

Opportunities for Authors

When surveys track declining reading habits, they are measuring the fall of casual reading. Meanwhile, many genre-fiction niches are thriving. The lesson is simple: stop trying to appeal to the general public and start looking for highly focused communities of passionate readers. We’ll come back to that point in a moment.

But what about those dramatic declines in author income? Here’s where the picture becomes more complicated.

I agree with publishing expert Jane Friedman, who has argued that author-income surveys can be misleading. They capture the financial decline of a twentieth-century publishing model rather than the reality faced by modern authors who have adapted to new opportunities.

Friedman points out that many respondents in recent surveys reported little or no income at all. Once those respondents are filtered out, the median income of full-time authors increased by 13% since 2013.

That finding aligns with research commissioned by the Alliance of Independent Authors, which reported rising author incomes and found that nearly one in five respondents was running a six-figure publishing business.

Now, I’m not suggesting that indie authors are thriving while traditionally published authors are doomed. Both paths remain viable.

But there is an uncomfortable reality we need to acknowledge. Traditional publishers generate a large share of their revenue from a small number of bestselling titles and major intellectual properties. Debut novels, by contrast, often sell only a few hundred copies.

Why?

Some people blame market saturation. After all, millions of books are published every year. Yet at the same time, thousands of enthusiastic readers complain that they can’t find enough books they want to read.

It sounds paradoxical, doesn’t it?

The truth is that not everyone likes bestsellers. I know I don’t. I analyze bestselling books for research purposes, but the novels I read for pleasure are written by authors you’ve probably never heard of. And honestly, I can’t get enough of them.

This apparent market saturation is actually a golden opportunity for you. Imagine a group of people stranded at sea on a raft. They are dying of thirst despite being surrounded by water. Many readers find themselves in a similar situation. There are more books available than ever before, yet discovering stories they enjoy has become increasingly difficult.

The authors earning six-figure incomes are not always the most talented. More often, they are the ones who understand how to reach a specific readership and consistently deliver the kinds of stories that readership wants to read.

Write to Market: A Solution Trap?

Now, I’m not suggesting you should write to market. In fact, I’d argue the opposite.

Many writers fail not because their books are poor, but because they spend years chasing trends. By the time they finish writing a book that follows a popular wave, that wave has often passed. If you want to benefit from emerging trends, you need to identify promising niches before they reach the mainstream.

Think about superhero fiction. I recall a time when it appealed to a relatively small community of nerds. Today, it fuels a multi-billion-dollar entertainment industry.

Crime fiction offers another example. Historically themed thrillers were once considered a niche interest, with authors such as Umberto Eco standing out as rare success stories. Then The Da Vinci Code became a global phenomenon, and suddenly bookshelves overflowed with novels about secret societies, Templars, ancient conspiracies, and hidden artefacts. Soon after, reader tastes shifted again, giving rise to psychological thrillers and domestic noir.

Changes in reader preferences often explain the sudden rise of unknown or midlist authors.

Take fantasy. For years, readers were drawn to the escapist appeal of epic quests and heroic adventures. Then, at the start of the twenty-first century, many readers began craving something darker, grittier, and more realistic. That shift helped propel authors such as George R. R. Martin from relative obscurity into the global spotlight.

So how do you spot an emerging niche?

One of the simplest methods is to study bestseller lists, such as the USA Today Top 150 or Amazon’s rankings. But don’t stop at the top ten or twenty titles. Dig deeper.

You might notice, for example, a LitRPG novel sitting in Amazon’s Top 100. Follow that trail, and you could discover a thriving community of dedicated readers that most writers know nothing about.

Many authors look only at broad categories like fantasy, romance, mystery, or science fiction. That’s a mistake. The real opportunities often hide in subgenres.

Look beyond Amazon as well. Explore Goodreads, BookBub, Kickstarter, genre-specific communities, and other digital spaces where passionate readers gather.

Exercise

Here’s an exercise for you. Using the method I just described, identify three promising niches that receive little mainstream attention. Then take it a step further and find the communities built around them. You’ll find them on Goodreads, Reddit, Discord, Facebook groups, and countless niche forums.

Join the conversation. Observe what people are excited about. Learn what they love, what frustrates them, and what kinds of stories they can’t seem to find. Who knows? You might discover your tribe. At the very least, you’ll meet like-minded readers and writers who share your interests.

Why Authors Need a Strategy

Rather than writing to market, I advocate something I call strategic convergence. It’s the point where your deepest creative obsessions intersect with a passionate, identifiable audience.

Many writers make the mistake of jumping into a hot niche they barely understand. That’s one of the fastest ways to alienate readers. To succeed, you need a genuine understanding of both the subgenre and the people who love it.

Do you know the ultimate weapon for standing out in a crowded marketplace?

Authenticity.

But authenticity is not the same thing as trying to be original at all costs. After analyzing more than a hundred successful books, I’ve noticed something interesting. They differ in style, genre, tone, and subject matter, yet they all seem to find the same balance: a sweet spot between originality and convention.

Enough familiarity to attract readers. Enough novelty to surprise them.

How to find that balance is the central focus of my research and writing. There is science behind it, and it’s a much bigger topic than I can cover here. If you’d like to explore it further, check out my writing guides.

Revenue Diversification

The other crucial element of a successful author strategy is revenue diversification. Never rely entirely on royalties. They’re notoriously unpredictable.

A recent Authors Guild study found that only 25% of readers purchase a new print book or e-book. That doesn’t mean authors can no longer earn a good living. It means the business model is changing, and writers need to adapt.

Subscription services, for example, have become increasingly important for both e-books and audiobooks. If your books gain traction through Kindle Unlimited, you may earn more from page reads than from direct sales. And that is only one example of how publishing is evolving.

If you dream of turning creative writing into a full‑time job, here’s my advice: don’t rely on royalties alone. Book sales are unpredictable—they always have been. In her book The Business of Being a Writer, Jane Friedman shares revealing figures showing that royalties make up only a small percentage of her annual income. That’s normal. It’s true for me as well and for many successful writers I know.

The good news is that authors have never had more tools to build a community around their work and monetize it. Crowdfunding and subscription models are just two examples of income streams that can complement royalties.

Many authors use crowdfunding to cover editing, cover design, formatting, even research trips. You don’t need millions to make your dream possible, but you do need a community of readers willing to support you.

Mailing lists and subscription platforms are another powerful tool. Andy Weir, author of The Martian, began by posting serialized fiction on his website and built a following of about three thousand readers. That core audience was the engine behind The Martian’s early success on Amazon.

Weir is a great example because his book took off with almost no self‑promotion. He didn’t spam social media, a habit far too common among writers today. The truth is, blatant self‑promotion doesn’t work. But when you have a loyal, enthusiastic following, your readers will promote your work for you.

Today, writers have access to platforms that make it easier than ever to share content, grow a mailing list, and even monetize serialized fiction through subscriptions. Substack is one such platform, attracting high‑profile authors like Salman Rushdie and Margaret Atwood. Building a following may feel daunting, but the prerequisite is simple: you must be part of the community you hope to reach.

Which is bigger: the global box office or the global book market?

So, let’s answer the question I asked at the beginning. Which is bigger: the global box office or the global book market?

Ready? Ta-da!

The global book market is roughly four to five times larger than the global box office. In other words, publishing remains a giant of the entertainment industry. So much for the idea that nobody buys books anymore.

The reality is far more nuanced. Yes, readers’ habits are changing. Yes, some sectors of publishing face serious challenges. And yes, many authors struggle to earn a living. But at the same time, enormous opportunities exist for writers who understand where the market is growing, where passionate readers gather, and how to connect the right stories with the right audiences.

And we’ve only scratched the surface today. We haven’t touched on the success of audiobooks, the growth of new international markets, and a host of other developments that are reshaping the industry. Those are topics for future posts.

So, what’s your view on the future of publishing? Do you think the industry is in decline, transforming, or entering a new golden age? Let me know in the comments. I’d love to hear your thoughts.